Charlotte’s points of margin with Cole Gonzales and since Cole Gonzales’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Charlotte was 8.9 points under with Cole Gonzales and 1.1 points over since Cole Gonzales’ last game over its last 25 games, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are -23.4 and -13.3, a difference of 10.1. All 4 nonconference games were with Cole Gonzales.
Cole Gonzales, quarterback: 802 passing yards, 127 pass attempts and 79 completions in 5 of those 25 games.
3 games since Cole Gonzales’ last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −10.1 difference in points of margin over expected with Cole Gonzales vs since Cole Gonzales’ last game is about what you’d expect.
A −10.1 difference in points of margin with Cole Gonzales vs since Cole Gonzales’ last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Memphis | L | -5 | -17.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2024 | vs Tulane | L | -31 | -15.6 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs South Florida | L | -35 | 1.7 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Florida Atlantic | W | 12 | -1.8 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs UAB | W | 2 | 5.7 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vs Appalachian State (neutral) | L | -23 | -3.4 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs North Carolina | L | -17 | -10.4 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsMMonmouth | W | 7 | — | |
| Sep 18, 2025 | vs Rice | L | -11 | 1.6 | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | @South Florida | L | -28 | -37.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Army | L | -17 | -24.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Temple | L | -35 | -6.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | vs North Texas | L | -34 | -28.3 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ East Carolina | L | -26 | -30.6 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs UTSA | L | -21 | -21.1 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Georgia | L | -32 | -45.4 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Tulane | L | -27 | -27.7 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs The Citadel | L | -2 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Ole Miss | L | -32 | -45.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Appalachian State | L | -5 | -13.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Louisiana | L | -27 | -9.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsMemphis | L | -51 | -10.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @North Texas | L | -40 | -18.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Temple | W | 7 | -15.4 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vsTulane | L | -7 | -9.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- The Citadel has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Cole Gonzales nor since Cole Gonzales’ last game: Cole Gonzales had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.