Charlotte’s points allowed with Conner Harrell and without Conner Harrell
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Charlotte was 6.8 points over with Conner Harrell and 3.0 points over without Conner Harrell in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 39.7 and 40.6, a difference of 0.9. Expected was 4.2 points lower with Conner Harrell than without Conner Harrell. All 4 nonconference games were without Conner Harrell. All 4 first-half games were without Conner Harrell.
Conner Harrell, quarterback: 831 passing yards, 108 pass attempts and 74 completions in 5 games this season.
3 games with Conner Harrell is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
A +3.8 difference in points allowed over expected with Conner Harrell vs without Conner Harrell is about what you’d expect.
A −0.9 difference in points allowed with Conner Harrell vs without Conner Harrell is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs The Citadel | L | 43 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Ole Miss | L | 41 | 50.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Appalachian State | L | 26 | 32.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Louisiana | L | 34 | 32.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Memphis | L | 59 | 33.6 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ North Texas | L | 50 | 43.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Temple | W | 31 | 30.2 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vs Tulane | L | 38 | 24.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- The Citadel has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.