California’s third-down conversion rate with Adam Mohammed and without Adam Mohammed
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, California was 6.0 percentage points under with Adam Mohammed and 2.5 percentage points over without Adam Mohammed in 2026, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 31.9% and 39.6%, a difference of 7.7%. Both ranked opponents were without Adam Mohammed. All 3 nonconference games were with Adam Mohammed. All 4 first-half games were with Adam Mohammed.
Adam Mohammed, running back: 363 rushing yards, 82 carries and 18 receptions in 5 games this season.
3 games without Adam Mohammed is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −8.4% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Adam Mohammed vs without Adam Mohammed is about what you’d expect.
A −7.7% difference in third-down conversion rate with Adam Mohammed vs without Adam Mohammed is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs UCLA | L | 52.4% | 31.0% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Syracuse | W | 25.0% | 40.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsWWagner | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | vs Clemson | L | 25.0% | 35.4% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ UNLV | L | 27.8% | 41.3% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Virginia Tech | W | 50.0% | 38.3% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Wake Forest | L | 37.5% | 38.8% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ SMU | L | 31.3% | 34.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ NC State | L | 27.8% | 39.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Wagner has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.