California’s points with Kingston Lopa and without Kingston Lopa
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, California was 3.1 points under with Kingston Lopa and 0.6 points over without Kingston Lopa in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 21.5 and 25.0, a difference of 3.5. Expected was 3.7 points lower with Kingston Lopa than without Kingston Lopa. All 4 away games were with Kingston Lopa. All 3 night games were with Kingston Lopa. Both ranked opponents were with Kingston Lopa.
Kingston Lopa, defender: 11 receiving yards and 1 reception in 7 games this season.
One game without Kingston Lopa is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
with Kingston Lopa
−3.1
without Kingston Lopa
+0.6
-10010
plain
21.5
25.0
2040
The games
with Kingston Lopawithout Kingston Lopa
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs UCLA | L | 24 | 13.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Syracuse | W | 21 | 22.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsWWagner | W | 49 | — | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | vs Clemson | L | 10 | 20.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ UNLV | L | 31 | 21.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Virginia Tech | W | 25 | 24.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Wake Forest | L | 7 | 19.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ SMU | L | 20 | 20.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ NC State | L | 10 | 27.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- Wagner has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.