California’s points with Ian Strong and without Ian Strong
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, California was 1.3 points under with Ian Strong and 12.2 points under without Ian Strong over its last 25 games, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 23.8 and 7.0, a difference of 16.8. All 4 away games were with Ian Strong. All 6 day games were with Ian Strong. All 7 unranked opponents were with Ian Strong.
Ian Strong, receiver: 478 receiving yards, 35 receptions and 1 receiving touchdown in 8 of those 25 games.
One game without Ian Strong is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
with Ian Strong
−1.3
without Ian Strong
−12.2
-10010
plain
23.8
7.0
2040
The games
with Ian Strongwithout Ian Strong
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Stanford | W | 24 | 29.3 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ SMU | L | 6 | 20.8 | |
| Dec 18, 2024 | vs UNLV (neutral) | L | 13 | 23.0 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Oregon State | W | 34 | 27.8 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Texas Southern | W | 35 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Minnesota | W | 27 | 23.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ San Diego State | L | 0 | 22.5 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Boston College | W | 28 | 29.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Duke | L | 21 | 31.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | vs North Carolina | W | 21 | 28.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | @ Virginia Tech | L | 34 | 24.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Virginia | L | 21 | 20.7 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Louisville | W | 29 | 18.2 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @Stanford | L | 10 | 26.2 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsSMU | W | 38 | 19.3 | |
| Dec 24, 2025 | @ Hawaii | L | 31 | 26.6 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs UCLA | L | 24 | 13.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Syracuse | W | 21 | 22.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsWWagner | W | 49 | — | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | vs Clemson | L | 10 | 20.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @UNLV | L | 31 | 21.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsVirginia Tech | W | 25 | 24.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Wake Forest | L | 7 | 19.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @SMU | L | 20 | 20.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ NC State | L | 10 | 27.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- Wagner has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 16 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Ian Strong nor without Ian Strong: Ian Strong had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.