California’s points with Adam Mohammed and without Adam Mohammed
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, California was 1.9 points under with Adam Mohammed and 3.9 points under without Adam Mohammed in 2026, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 24.2 and 17.3, a difference of 6.8. Both ranked opponents were without Adam Mohammed. All 3 nonconference games were with Adam Mohammed. All 4 first-half games were with Adam Mohammed.
Adam Mohammed, running back: 363 rushing yards, 82 carries and 18 receptions in 5 games this season.
3 games without Adam Mohammed is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
A +2.0 difference in points over expected with Adam Mohammed vs without Adam Mohammed is about what you’d expect.
A +6.8 difference in points with Adam Mohammed vs without Adam Mohammed is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs UCLA | L | 24 | 13.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Syracuse | W | 21 | 22.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsWWagner | W | 49 | — | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | vs Clemson | L | 10 | 20.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ UNLV | L | 31 | 21.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Virginia Tech | W | 25 | 24.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Wake Forest | L | 7 | 19.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ SMU | L | 20 | 20.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ NC State | L | 10 | 27.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Wagner has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.