California’s points of margin with Kingston Lopa and without Kingston Lopa
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, California was 6.1 points under with Kingston Lopa and 16.0 points over without Kingston Lopa over its last 25 games, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are -11.5 and 5.0, a difference of 16.5. All 4 away games were with Kingston Lopa. All 3 night games were with Kingston Lopa. Both ranked opponents were with Kingston Lopa.
Kingston Lopa, defender: 11 receiving yards and 1 reception in 7 of those 25 games.
One game without Kingston Lopa is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Kingston Lopa
−6.1
without Kingston Lopa
+16.0
-200
plain
-11.5
5.0
0
The games
with Kingston Lopawithout Kingston Lopa
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Stanford | W | 3 | 11.1 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ SMU | L | -32 | -12.9 | |
| Dec 18, 2024 | vs UNLV (neutral) | L | -11 | -3.9 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Oregon State | W | 19 | 4.5 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Texas Southern | W | 32 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Minnesota | W | 13 | -4.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ San Diego State | L | -34 | -4.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Boston College | W | 4 | 0.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Duke | L | -24 | -3.8 | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | vs North Carolina | W | 3 | 7.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | @ Virginia Tech | L | -8 | -2.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Virginia | L | -10 | -10.3 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Louisville | W | 3 | -18.6 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @Stanford | L | -21 | 0.3 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsSMU | W | 3 | -15.0 | |
| Dec 24, 2025 | @ Hawaii | L | -4 | -3.2 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs UCLA | L | -21 | -22.7 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Syracuse | W | 3 | -16.7 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsWWagner | W | 42 | — | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | vs Clemson | L | -14 | -10.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @UNLV | L | -8 | -4.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsVirginia Tech | W | 5 | -11.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Wake Forest | L | -34 | -20.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @SMU | L | -39 | -10.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ NC State | L | -21 | -5.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Wagner has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 16 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Kingston Lopa nor without Kingston Lopa: Kingston Lopa had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.