California’s points of margin with Jackson Brousseau and without Jackson Brousseau
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, California was 0.5 points under with Jackson Brousseau and 5.1 points under without Jackson Brousseau over its last 25 games, 3 games against 5. The plain averages are -12.3 and -8.3, a difference of 4.0.
Jackson Brousseau, quarterback: 701 passing yards, 120 pass attempts and 75 completions in 5 of those 25 games.
3 games with Jackson Brousseau is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +4.6 difference in points of margin over expected with Jackson Brousseau vs without Jackson Brousseau is about what you’d expect.
A −4.0 difference in points of margin with Jackson Brousseau vs without Jackson Brousseau is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Stanford | W | 3 | 11.1 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ SMU | L | -32 | -12.9 | |
| Dec 18, 2024 | vs UNLV (neutral) | L | -11 | -3.9 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Oregon State | W | 19 | 4.5 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Texas Southern | W | 32 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Minnesota | W | 13 | -4.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ San Diego State | L | -34 | -4.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Boston College | W | 4 | 0.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Duke | L | -24 | -3.8 | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | vs North Carolina | W | 3 | 7.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | @ Virginia Tech | L | -8 | -2.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Virginia | L | -10 | -10.3 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Louisville | W | 3 | -18.6 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @Stanford | L | -21 | 0.3 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsSMU | W | 3 | -15.0 | |
| Dec 24, 2025 | @ Hawaii | L | -4 | -3.2 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs UCLA | L | -21 | -22.9 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Syracuse | W | 3 | -16.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsWWagner | W | 42 | — | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | vs Clemson | L | -14 | -10.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @UNLV | L | -8 | -4.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsVirginia Tech | W | 5 | -10.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Wake Forest | L | -34 | -20.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @SMU | L | -39 | -10.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ NC State | L | -21 | -5.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Wagner has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 16 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Jackson Brousseau nor without Jackson Brousseau: Jackson Brousseau had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.