California’s points of margin with Adam Mohammed and without Adam Mohammed
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, California was 0.3 points under with Adam Mohammed and 8.7 points under without Adam Mohammed over its last 25 games, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are -3.2 and -22.7, a difference of 19.5. Both ranked opponents were without Adam Mohammed. All 3 nonconference games were with Adam Mohammed.
Adam Mohammed, running back: 363 rushing yards, 82 carries and 18 receptions in 5 of those 25 games.
3 games without Adam Mohammed is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +8.4 difference in points of margin over expected with Adam Mohammed vs without Adam Mohammed is about what you’d expect.
A +19.5 difference in points of margin with Adam Mohammed vs without Adam Mohammed is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Stanford | W | 3 | 11.1 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ SMU | L | -32 | -12.9 | |
| Dec 18, 2024 | vs UNLV (neutral) | L | -11 | -3.9 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Oregon State | W | 19 | 4.5 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Texas Southern | W | 32 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Minnesota | W | 13 | -4.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ San Diego State | L | -34 | -4.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Boston College | W | 4 | 0.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Duke | L | -24 | -3.8 | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | vs North Carolina | W | 3 | 7.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | @ Virginia Tech | L | -8 | -2.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Virginia | L | -10 | -10.3 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Louisville | W | 3 | -18.6 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @Stanford | L | -21 | 0.3 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsSMU | W | 3 | -15.0 | |
| Dec 24, 2025 | @ Hawaii | L | -4 | -3.2 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs UCLA | L | -21 | -22.9 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Syracuse | W | 3 | -16.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsWWagner | W | 42 | — | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | vs Clemson | L | -14 | -10.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @UNLV | L | -8 | -4.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsVirginia Tech | W | 5 | -10.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Wake Forest | L | -34 | -20.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @SMU | L | -39 | -10.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ NC State | L | -21 | -5.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Wagner has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 16 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Adam Mohammed nor without Adam Mohammed: Adam Mohammed had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.