California’s carries with Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and without Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, California was 1.5 carries under with Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and 6.7 carries under without Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele over its last 25 games, 17 games against 3. The plain averages are 28.9 and 23.7, a difference of 5.3. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. Both games after a bye were with Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. All 11 of Justin Wilcox’s games were with Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele.
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, quarterback: 5,205 passing yards, 756 pass attempts and 494 completions in 21 of those 25 games, 14% of California’s carries in those games.
3 games without Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +5.2 difference in carries over expected with Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele vs without Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is about what you’d expect.
A +5.3 difference in carries with Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele vs without Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and it comes up 8 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Stanford | W | 28 | 33.4 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ SMU | L | 37 | 34.3 | |
| Dec 18, 2024 | vs UNLV (neutral) | L | 43 | 31.9 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Oregon State | W | 30 | 29.0 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Texas Southern | W | 33 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Minnesota | W | 23 | 30.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ San Diego State | L | 31 | 32.1 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Boston College | W | 36 | 31.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Duke | L | 29 | 29.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | vs North Carolina | W | 31 | 32.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | @ Virginia Tech | L | 26 | 30.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Virginia | L | 25 | 30.4 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Louisville | W | 25 | 28.8 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @Stanford | L | 25 | 29.4 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsSMU | W | 36 | 32.1 | |
| Dec 24, 2025 | @ Hawaii | L | 28 | 29.1 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs UCLA | L | 38 | 28.9 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Syracuse | W | 24 | 28.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsWWagner | W | 28 | — | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | vs Clemson | L | 27 | 32.7 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @UNLV | L | 24 | 32.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsVirginia Tech | W | 26 | 28.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Wake Forest | L | 21 | 30.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @SMU | L | 28 | 29.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ NC State | L | 27 | 29.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.3 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 74% in 2025, 61% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Texas Southern, Wagner have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 3 games in 2024 are neither with Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele nor without Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele had no game for the team that season, and sit out.