California’s carries with Ian Strong and without Ian Strong
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, California was 2.3 carries under with Ian Strong and 9.4 carries under without Ian Strong in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 27.8 and 21.0, a difference of 6.8. All 4 away games were with Ian Strong. All 6 day games were with Ian Strong. All 7 unranked opponents were with Ian Strong.
Ian Strong, receiver: 478 receiving yards, 35 receptions and 1 receiving touchdown in 8 games this season.
One game without Ian Strong is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Ian Strong
−2.3
without Ian Strong
−9.4
-505
plain
27.8
21.0
253035
The games
with Ian Strongwithout Ian Strong
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs UCLA | L | 38 | 29.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Syracuse | W | 24 | 28.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsWWagner | W | 28 | — | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | vs Clemson | L | 27 | 32.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ UNLV | L | 24 | 32.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Virginia Tech | W | 26 | 28.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Wake Forest | L | 21 | 30.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ SMU | L | 28 | 29.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ NC State | L | 27 | 29.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Wagner has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.