BYU’s third-down conversion rate with LJ Martin and without LJ Martin
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, BYU was 4.5 percentage points over with LJ Martin and 3.5 percentage points over without LJ Martin over its last 25 games, 18 games against 5. The plain averages are 46.9% and 45.4%, a difference of 1.6%. Expected was 2.1 percentage points lower with LJ Martin than without LJ Martin. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with LJ Martin. All 3 games while unranked were with LJ Martin. All 3 games after a bye were with LJ Martin.
LJ Martin, running back: 1,866 rushing yards, 327 carries and 45 receptions in 20 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +1.0% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with LJ Martin vs without LJ Martin is about what you’d expect.
A +1.6% difference in third-down conversion rate with LJ Martin vs without LJ Martin is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Arizona State | L | 70.0% | 36.9% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Houston | W | 40.0% | 36.9% | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Colorado (neutral) | W | 57.1% | 35.6% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsPPortland State | W | 60.0% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Stanford | W | 35.7% | 41.8% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ East Carolina | W | 50.0% | 37.7% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Colorado | W | 36.4% | 38.9% | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | vs West Virginia | W | 33.3% | 42.2% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Arizona | W | 50.0% | 37.8% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Utah | W | 25.0% | 41.1% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Iowa State | W | 40.0% | 41.8% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Texas Tech | L | 21.4% | 37.3% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs TCU | W | 50.0% | 39.2% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Cincinnati | W | 50.0% | 42.8% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs UCF | W | 46.2% | 41.2% | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsTexas Tech (neutral) | L | 42.9% | 35.7% | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Georgia Tech (neutral) | W | 50.0% | 43.4% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsUUtah Tech | W | 81.8% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsArizona | W | 54.5% | 42.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Colorado State | W | 44.4% | 49.8% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @TCU | W | 50.0% | 36.7% | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vsIowa State | W | 40.0% | 41.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Notre Dame | W | 66.7% | 39.8% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @UCF | L | 47.1% | 41.5% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsArizona State | W | 23.1% | 43.4% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Portland State, Utah Tech have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 13 of these 25 games; in the other 12 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.