BYU’s third-down conversion rate with LJ Martin and since LJ Martin’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, BYU was 6.6 percentage points over with LJ Martin and 2.7 percentage points over since LJ Martin’s last game in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 57.7% and 44.2%, a difference of 13.5%. All 4 first-half games were with LJ Martin. All 4 second-half games were since LJ Martin’s last game.
LJ Martin, running back: 344 rushing yards, 44 carries and 5 receptions in 4 games this season.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with LJ Martin
+6.6%
since LJ Martin’s last game
+2.7%
-20%0%20%
A +3.9% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with LJ Martin vs since LJ Martin’s last game is about what you’d expect.
plain
57.7%
44.2%
40%60%80%
A +13.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with LJ Martin vs since LJ Martin’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
with LJ Martinsince LJ Martin’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsUUtah Tech | W | 81.8% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Arizona | W | 54.5% | 42.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Colorado State | W | 44.4% | 49.7% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ TCU | W | 50.0% | 36.8% | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vs Iowa State | W | 40.0% | 41.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Notre Dame | W | 66.7% | 39.8% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ UCF | L | 47.1% | 41.5% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Arizona State | W | 23.1% | 43.3% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Utah Tech has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 4 of these 8 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.