BYU’s third-down conversion rate with Journee Tonga and without Journee Tonga
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, BYU was 2.6 percentage points over with Journee Tonga and 8.8 percentage points over without Journee Tonga over its last 25 games, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 51.0% and 50.8%, a difference of 0.2%. Both night games were with Journee Tonga. All 3 nonconference games were with Journee Tonga.
Journee Tonga, running back: 184 rushing yards, 32 carries and 2 receptions in 6 of those 25 games.
2 games without Journee Tonga is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −6.1% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Journee Tonga vs without Journee Tonga is about what you’d expect.
A +0.2% difference in third-down conversion rate with Journee Tonga vs without Journee Tonga is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Arizona State | L | 70.0% | 36.9% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Houston | W | 40.0% | 36.9% | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Colorado (neutral) | W | 57.1% | 35.6% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsPPortland State | W | 60.0% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Stanford | W | 35.7% | 41.8% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ East Carolina | W | 50.0% | 37.7% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Colorado | W | 36.4% | 38.9% | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | vs West Virginia | W | 33.3% | 42.2% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Arizona | W | 50.0% | 37.8% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Utah | W | 25.0% | 41.1% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Iowa State | W | 40.0% | 41.8% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Texas Tech | L | 21.4% | 37.3% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs TCU | W | 50.0% | 39.2% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Cincinnati | W | 50.0% | 42.8% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs UCF | W | 46.2% | 41.2% | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsTexas Tech (neutral) | L | 42.9% | 35.7% | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Georgia Tech (neutral) | W | 50.0% | 43.4% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsUUtah Tech | W | 81.8% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsArizona | W | 54.5% | 42.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Colorado State | W | 44.4% | 49.7% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @TCU | W | 50.0% | 36.8% | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vsIowa State | W | 40.0% | 41.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Notre Dame | W | 66.7% | 39.8% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @UCF | L | 47.1% | 41.5% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsArizona State | W | 23.1% | 43.3% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Utah Tech has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 4 of these 8 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Journee Tonga nor without Journee Tonga: Journee Tonga had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.