BYU’s points of margin with Journee Tonga and without Journee Tonga
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, BYU was 3.2 points over with Journee Tonga and 2.4 points under without Journee Tonga over its last 25 games, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 17.7 and 1.5, a difference of 16.2. Both night games were with Journee Tonga. All 3 nonconference games were with Journee Tonga.
Journee Tonga, running back: 184 rushing yards, 32 carries and 2 receptions in 6 of those 25 games.
2 games without Journee Tonga is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +5.5 difference in points of margin over expected with Journee Tonga vs without Journee Tonga is about what you’d expect.
A +16.2 difference in points of margin with Journee Tonga vs without Journee Tonga is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Arizona State | L | -5 | -2.4 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Houston | W | 12 | 19.6 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Colorado (neutral) | W | 22 | -3.1 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsPPortland State | W | 69 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Stanford | W | 24 | 20.7 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ East Carolina | W | 21 | 4.4 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Colorado | W | 3 | 18.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | vs West Virginia | W | 14 | 23.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Arizona | W | 6 | -0.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Utah | W | 3 | -5.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Iowa State | W | 14 | 3.6 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Texas Tech | L | -22 | -12.3 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs TCU | W | 31 | 5.4 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Cincinnati | W | 12 | 9.2 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs UCF | W | 20 | 19.9 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsTexas Tech (neutral) | L | -27 | -8.5 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Georgia Tech (neutral) | W | 4 | 9.8 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsUUtah Tech | W | 56 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsArizona | W | 11 | -0.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Colorado State | W | 18 | 20.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @TCU | W | 7 | 0.6 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vsIowa State | W | 14 | 8.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Notre Dame | W | 4 | -13.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @UCF | L | -8 | 8.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsArizona State | W | 7 | 18.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Utah Tech has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 4 of these 8 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Journee Tonga nor without Journee Tonga: Journee Tonga had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.