BYU’s points allowed with Preston Rex and without Preston Rex
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, BYU was 1.2 points under with Preston Rex and 2.7 points under without Preston Rex over its last 25 games, 16 games against 4. The plain averages are 21.2 and 11.6, a difference of 9.6. Both neutral-site games were with Preston Rex. All 5 ranked opponents were with Preston Rex. All 3 top-10 opponents were with Preston Rex.
Preston Rex, defender: 253 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns and 97 receiving yards in 12 of those 25 games.
points allowed a game over expected
A +1.6 difference in points allowed over expected with Preston Rex vs without Preston Rex is about what you’d expect.
A +9.6 difference in points allowed with Preston Rex vs without Preston Rex is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Preston Rex and it comes up 17 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Arizona State | L | 28 | 27.4 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Houston | W | 18 | 10.4 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Colorado (neutral) | W | 14 | 28.2 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsPPortland State | W | 0 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Stanford | W | 3 | 15.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ East Carolina | W | 13 | 22.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Colorado | W | 21 | 17.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | vs West Virginia | W | 24 | 14.2 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Arizona | W | 27 | 23.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Utah | W | 21 | 31.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Iowa State | W | 27 | 20.1 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Texas Tech | L | 29 | 30.4 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs TCU | W | 13 | 23.5 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Cincinnati | W | 14 | 23.1 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs UCF | W | 21 | 11.7 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsTexas Tech (neutral) | L | 34 | 28.3 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Georgia Tech (neutral) | W | 21 | 22.4 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsUUtah Tech | W | 7 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsArizona | W | 17 | 24.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Colorado State | W | 23 | 25.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @TCU | W | 10 | 16.4 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vsIowa State | W | 10 | 23.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Notre Dame | W | 24 | 29.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @UCF | L | 39 | 18.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsArizona State | W | 20 | 18.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.5 in 2025, minus 1.9 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Portland State, Utah Tech have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 13 of these 22 games; in the other 9 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 3 games in 2024 are neither with Preston Rex nor without Preston Rex: Preston Rex had no game for the team that season, and sit out.