BYU’s points allowed with Journee Tonga and without Journee Tonga
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, BYU was 5.5 points under with Journee Tonga and 6.8 points over without Journee Tonga in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 15.7 and 28.0, a difference of 12.3. Both night games were with Journee Tonga. All 3 nonconference games were with Journee Tonga.
Journee Tonga, running back: 184 rushing yards, 32 carries and 2 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games without Journee Tonga is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
A −12.2 difference in points allowed over expected with Journee Tonga vs without Journee Tonga is about what you’d expect.
A −12.3 difference in points allowed with Journee Tonga vs without Journee Tonga is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Journee Tonga and it comes up 19 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsUUtah Tech | W | 7 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Arizona | W | 17 | 24.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Colorado State | W | 23 | 25.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ TCU | W | 10 | 16.4 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vs Iowa State | W | 10 | 23.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Notre Dame | W | 24 | 29.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ UCF | L | 39 | 18.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Arizona State | W | 20 | 18.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Utah Tech has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 4 of these 8 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.