Putting Up Numbers· college football

BYU’s penalty yards with LJ Martin and since LJ Martin’s last game

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Against what the season’s ratings expected, BYU was 3.8 yards over with LJ Martin and 13.1 yards under since LJ Martin’s last game in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 54.8 and 41.3, a difference of 13.5. All 4 first-half games were with LJ Martin. All 4 second-half games were since LJ Martin’s last game.

LJ Martin, running back: 344 rushing yards, 44 carries and 5 receptions in 4 games this season.

penalty yards a game over expected

A +16.9 difference in penalty yards over expected with LJ Martin vs since LJ Martin’s last game is about what you’d expect.

A +13.5 difference in penalty yards with LJ Martin vs since LJ Martin’s last game is about what you’d expect.

The games

with LJ Martinsince LJ Martin’s last game
BYU’s games, 2026, each marked with LJ Martin or since LJ Martin’s last game
SideDateGameResultpenalty yardsExpected
Sep 5, 2026vsUUtah TechW46—
Sep 12, 2026vsArizonaW5955.4
Sep 19, 2026@Colorado StateW7452.1
Oct 3, 2026@TCUW4054.0
Oct 9, 2026vsIowa StateW6554.2
Oct 17, 2026vsNotre DameW3557.0
Oct 24, 2026@UCFL4658.1
Oct 31, 2026vsArizona StateW1948.2

Method

Read against .

  • Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.3 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
  • Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 27% of the difference the model predicts.
  • The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
  • Utah Tech has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
  • Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 4 of these 8 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.