BYU’s carries with LJ Martin and since LJ Martin’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, BYU was 0.5 carries under with LJ Martin and 1.8 carries under since LJ Martin’s last game in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 36.5 and 30.3, a difference of 6.3. All 4 first-half games were with LJ Martin. All 4 second-half games were since LJ Martin’s last game.
LJ Martin, running back: 344 rushing yards, 44 carries and 5 receptions in 4 games this season, 30% of BYU’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
with LJ Martin
−0.5
since LJ Martin’s last game
−1.8
-50
A +1.3 difference in carries over expected with LJ Martin vs since LJ Martin’s last game is about what you’d expect.
plain
36.5
30.3
303540
A +6.3 difference in carries with LJ Martin vs since LJ Martin’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
with LJ Martinsince LJ Martin’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsUUtah Tech | W | 44 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Arizona | W | 28 | 36.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Colorado State | W | 38 | 36.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ TCU | W | 36 | 31.2 | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | vs Iowa State | W | 29 | 31.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Notre Dame | W | 29 | 30.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ UCF | L | 35 | 33.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Arizona State | W | 28 | 32.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Utah Tech has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 4 of these 8 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.