Bowling Green’s third-down conversion rate with Austyn Dendy and without Austyn Dendy
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Bowling Green was 1.5 percentage points under with Austyn Dendy and 1.6 percentage points under without Austyn Dendy over its last 25 games, 11 games against 7. The plain averages are 39.4% and 34.6%, a difference of 4.8%.
Austyn Dendy, running back: 864 rushing yards, 212 carries and 9 receptions in 13 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Austyn Dendy
−1.5%
without Austyn Dendy
−1.6%
-20%0%20%
A +0.1% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Austyn Dendy vs without Austyn Dendy is about what you’d expect.
plain
39.4%
34.6%
20%40%60%
A +4.8% difference in third-down conversion rate with Austyn Dendy vs without Austyn Dendy is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Austyn Dendywithout Austyn Dendy
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2024 | vs Western Michigan | W | 50.0% | 40.7% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Ball State | W | 41.2% | 44.0% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 21.4% | 42.1% | |
| Dec 26, 2024 | vs Arkansas State (neutral) | L | 47.1% | 43.2% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vs Lafayette | W | 38.5% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Cincinnati | L | 37.5% | 34.2% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Liberty | W | 35.3% | 41.3% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Louisville | L | 33.3% | 28.6% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Ohio | L | 38.5% | 32.2% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Toledo | W | 16.7% | 34.9% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Central Michigan | L | 33.3% | 41.9% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Kent State | L | 66.7% | 38.8% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Buffalo | L | 25.0% | 36.4% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Eastern Michigan | L | 36.4% | 41.3% | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | vs Akron | L | 33.3% | 36.4% | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | @ UMass | W | 37.5% | 43.6% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsTTarleton State | L | 46.2% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Nebraska | L | 16.7% | 33.8% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Iowa State | L | 16.7% | 37.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs South Florida | L | 33.3% | 39.7% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Miami (OH) | W | 50.0% | 40.7% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsSSacramento State | W | 55.6% | — | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsBall State | L | 41.7% | 42.4% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Buffalo | L | 53.3% | 36.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Western Michigan | L | 43.8% | 36.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Lafayette, Tarleton State, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Austyn Dendy nor without Austyn Dendy: Austyn Dendy had no game for the team that season, and sit out.