Bowling Green’s third-down conversion rate with Austyn Dendy and since Austyn Dendy’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Bowling Green was 3.2 percentage points under with Austyn Dendy and 7.6 percentage points over since Austyn Dendy’s last game in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 39.2% and 43.8%, a difference of 4.6%. All 4 home games were with Austyn Dendy. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Austyn Dendy. All 4 nonconference games were with Austyn Dendy.
Austyn Dendy, running back: 371 rushing yards, 104 carries and 5 receptions in 8 games this season.
One game since Austyn Dendy’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Austyn Dendy
−3.2%
since Austyn Dendy’s last game
+7.6%
-20%-10%0%10%
plain
39.2%
43.8%
20%30%40%50%
The games
with Austyn Dendysince Austyn Dendy’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsTTarleton State | L | 46.2% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Nebraska | L | 16.7% | 33.8% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Iowa State | L | 16.7% | 37.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs South Florida | L | 33.3% | 39.7% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Miami (OH) | W | 50.0% | 40.7% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsSSacramento State | W | 55.6% | — | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Ball State | L | 41.7% | 42.4% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Buffalo | L | 53.3% | 36.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Western Michigan | L | 43.8% | 36.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Tarleton State, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.