Bowling Green’s rushing yards with Austyn Dendy and since Austyn Dendy’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Bowling Green was 30.9 yards under with Austyn Dendy and 22.7 yards over since Austyn Dendy’s last game in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 108.1 and 125.0, a difference of 16.9. Expected was 19.3 yards higher with Austyn Dendy than since Austyn Dendy’s last game. All 4 home games were with Austyn Dendy. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Austyn Dendy. All 4 nonconference games were with Austyn Dendy.
Austyn Dendy, running back: 371 rushing yards, 104 carries and 5 receptions in 8 games this season, 43% of Bowling Green’s rushing yards in those games.
One game since Austyn Dendy’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsTTarleton State | L | 103 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Nebraska | L | 85 | 92.7 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Iowa State | L | 92 | 117.3 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs South Florida | L | 85 | 121.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Miami (OH) | W | 60 | 84.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsSSacramento State | W | 218 | — | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Ball State | L | 98 | 171.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Buffalo | L | 124 | 142.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Western Michigan | L | 125 | 102.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 8.0 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- Tarleton State, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.