Bowling Green’s points of margin with JoJo Johnson and since JoJo Johnson’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Bowling Green was 21.4 points under with JoJo Johnson and 0.8 points under since JoJo Johnson’s last game in 2026, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are -28.0 and -6.4, a difference of 21.6. All 5 conference games were since JoJo Johnson’s last game. All 5 second-half games were since JoJo Johnson’s last game.
JoJo Johnson, defender: 2 games this season.
2 games with JoJo Johnson is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with JoJo Johnson
−21.4
since JoJo Johnson’s last game
−0.8
-200
plain
-28.0
-6.4
-40-20020
A −21.6 difference in points of margin with JoJo Johnson vs since JoJo Johnson’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
with JoJo Johnsonsince JoJo Johnson’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsTTarleton State | L | -7 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Nebraska | L | -49 | -27.6 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Iowa State | L | -48 | -19.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs South Florida | L | -8 | -13.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Miami (OH) | W | 4 | -12.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsSSacramento State | W | 28 | — | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Ball State | L | -1 | 5.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Buffalo | L | -7 | -10.7 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Western Michigan | L | -13 | -17.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Tarleton State, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.