Bowling Green’s carries in a conference game and in a nonconference game
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Through Bowling Green’s game on Sep 5, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Bowling Green was 2.4 carries over in a conference game and 5.9 carries under in a nonconference game over its last 25 games, 16 games against 7. The plain averages are 37.5 and 31.0, a difference of 6.5. Both ranked opponents were in a nonconference game. Both opponents outside the major colleges were in a nonconference game.
Bowling Green’s +8.3 in a conference game vs in a nonconference game over expected ranks 2nd of the 132 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games through Sep 5, 2026.
carries a game over expected
A +8.3 difference in carries over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up less than once in 100.
A +6.5 difference in carries in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 6 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7, 2024 | @ Penn State | L | 25 | 30.4 | |
| Sep 21, 2024 | @ Texas A&M | L | 23 | 30.4 | |
| Sep 28, 2024 | vs Old Dominion | L | 33 | 35.3 | |
| Oct 5, 2024 | @ Akron | W | 33 | 33.5 | |
| Oct 12, 2024 | vs Northern Illinois | L | 33 | 29.3 | |
| Oct 19, 2024 | vs Kent State | W | 44 | 37.5 | |
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Toledo | W | 37 | 35.7 | |
| Nov 5, 2024 | @ Central Michigan | W | 34 | 32.2 | |
| Nov 12, 2024 | vs Western Michigan | W | 31 | 33.0 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Ball State | W | 39 | 28.3 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 23 | 31.6 | |
| Dec 26, 2024 | vs Arkansas State (neutral) | L | 24 | 33.6 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vs Lafayette | W | 42 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Cincinnati | L | 34 | 41.2 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Liberty | W | 33 | 37.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Louisville | L | 29 | 33.5 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Ohio | L | 36 | 32.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vsToledo | W | 35 | 36.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsCentral Michigan | L | 36 | 35.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @Kent State | L | 50 | 37.9 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Buffalo | L | 43 | 43.3 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Eastern Michigan | L | 35 | 38.5 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | vsAkron | L | 44 | 36.2 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | @ UMass | W | 47 | 40.6 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsTTarleton State | L | 36 | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.1 in 2024, plus 0.3 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 73% in 2024, 74% in 2025, 61% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Lafayette, Tarleton State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Oct 31, 2026; the games are the ones through Sep 5.