Boston College’s third-down conversion rate with Mekhi Dodd and without Mekhi Dodd
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Boston College was 7.6 percentage points over with Mekhi Dodd and 6.6 percentage points under without Mekhi Dodd over its last 25 games, 6 games against 12. The plain averages are 42.0% and 34.4%, a difference of 7.6%. All 5 night games were without Mekhi Dodd.
Mekhi Dodd, running back: 94 rushing yards, 22 carries and 3 receptions in 6 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +14.2% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Mekhi Dodd vs without Mekhi Dodd is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Mekhi Dodd and it comes up 14 times in 100.
A +7.6% difference in third-down conversion rate with Mekhi Dodd vs without Mekhi Dodd is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Mekhi Dodd and it comes up 6 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Syracuse | W | 30.8% | 43.0% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ SMU | L | 40.0% | 38.7% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs North Carolina | W | 46.7% | 42.0% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Pittsburgh | W | 35.7% | 40.4% | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Nebraska (neutral) | L | 50.0% | 37.6% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Fordham | W | 66.7% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Michigan State | L | 45.5% | 36.2% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Stanford | L | 38.5% | 36.8% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs California | L | 36.4% | 41.9% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @Pittsburgh | L | 33.3% | 34.8% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Clemson | L | 25.0% | 34.7% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs UConn | L | 26.7% | 42.8% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Louisville | L | 37.5% | 34.2% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Notre Dame | L | 44.4% | 32.7% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsSMU | L | 13.3% | 39.7% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Georgia Tech | L | 45.5% | 40.5% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Syracuse | W | 50.0% | 36.8% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Cincinnati | L | 30.8% | 40.5% | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vs Rutgers | W | 33.3% | 43.7% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Maine | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Virginia Tech | L | 15.4% | 41.5% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @SMU | L | 43.8% | 29.8% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsPittsburgh | W | 61.5% | 33.5% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Georgia Tech | W | 44.4% | 39.5% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Duke | L | 15.4% | 34.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Fordham, Maine have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Mekhi Dodd nor without Mekhi Dodd: Mekhi Dodd had no game for the team that season, and sit out.