Boston College’s third-down conversion rate with Evan Dickens and since Evan Dickens’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Boston College was 0.1 percentage points over with Evan Dickens and 19.2 percentage points under since Evan Dickens’ last game over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 37.5% and 15.4%, a difference of 22.1%. All 4 home games were with Evan Dickens. All 3 nonconference games were with Evan Dickens.
Evan Dickens, running back: 296 rushing yards, 66 carries and 12 receptions in 7 of those 25 games.
One game since Evan Dickens’ last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Evan Dickens
+0.1%
since Evan Dickens’ last game
−19.2%
-20%0%20%
plain
37.5%
15.4%
20%40%60%
The games
with Evan Dickenssince Evan Dickens’ last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Syracuse | W | 30.8% | 43.0% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ SMU | L | 40.0% | 38.7% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs North Carolina | W | 46.7% | 42.0% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Pittsburgh | W | 35.7% | 40.4% | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Nebraska (neutral) | L | 50.0% | 37.6% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Fordham | W | 66.7% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Michigan State | L | 45.5% | 36.2% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Stanford | L | 38.5% | 36.8% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs California | L | 36.4% | 41.9% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @Pittsburgh | L | 33.3% | 34.8% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Clemson | L | 25.0% | 34.7% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs UConn | L | 26.7% | 42.8% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Louisville | L | 37.5% | 34.2% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Notre Dame | L | 44.4% | 32.7% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsSMU | L | 13.3% | 39.7% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Georgia Tech | L | 45.5% | 40.5% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Syracuse | W | 50.0% | 36.8% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Cincinnati | L | 30.8% | 40.5% | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vs Rutgers | W | 33.3% | 43.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Maine | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Virginia Tech | L | 15.4% | 41.5% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @SMU | L | 43.8% | 29.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsPittsburgh | W | 61.5% | 33.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Georgia Tech | W | 44.4% | 39.6% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Duke | L | 15.4% | 34.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Maine has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Evan Dickens nor since Evan Dickens’ last game: Evan Dickens had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.