Boston College’s third-down conversion rate with Evan Dickens and since Evan Dickens’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Boston College was 0.1 percentage points over with Evan Dickens and 19.2 percentage points under since Evan Dickens’ last game in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 37.5% and 15.4%, a difference of 22.1%. All 4 home games were with Evan Dickens. All 3 nonconference games were with Evan Dickens. All 4 first-half games were with Evan Dickens.
Evan Dickens, running back: 296 rushing yards, 66 carries and 12 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game since Evan Dickens’ last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Evan Dickens
+0.1%
since Evan Dickens’ last game
−19.2%
-20%0%20%
plain
37.5%
15.4%
20%40%60%
The games
with Evan Dickenssince Evan Dickens’ last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Cincinnati | L | 30.8% | 40.5% | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vs Rutgers | W | 33.3% | 43.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Maine | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Virginia Tech | L | 15.4% | 41.5% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ SMU | L | 43.8% | 29.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Pittsburgh | W | 61.5% | 33.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Georgia Tech | W | 44.4% | 39.6% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Duke | L | 15.4% | 34.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Maine has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.