Boston College’s third-down conversion rate with Bo MacCormack III and without Bo MacCormack III
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Boston College was 2.3 percentage points under with Bo MacCormack III and 0.2 percentage points under without Bo MacCormack III over its last 25 games, 14 games against 4. The plain averages are 37.0% and 37.0%, a difference of 0.0%. Expected was 0.8 percentage points lower with Bo MacCormack III than without Bo MacCormack III.
Bo MacCormack III, running back: 311 rushing yards, 73 carries and 9 receptions in 11 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −2.2% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Bo MacCormack III vs without Bo MacCormack III is about what you’d expect.
A +0.0% difference in third-down conversion rate with Bo MacCormack III vs without Bo MacCormack III is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Syracuse | W | 30.8% | 43.0% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ SMU | L | 40.0% | 38.7% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs North Carolina | W | 46.7% | 42.0% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Pittsburgh | W | 35.7% | 40.4% | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Nebraska (neutral) | L | 50.0% | 37.6% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Fordham | W | 66.7% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Michigan State | L | 45.5% | 36.2% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Stanford | L | 38.5% | 36.8% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs California | L | 36.4% | 41.9% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @Pittsburgh | L | 33.3% | 34.8% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Clemson | L | 25.0% | 34.7% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs UConn | L | 26.7% | 42.8% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Louisville | L | 37.5% | 34.2% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Notre Dame | L | 44.4% | 32.7% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsSMU | L | 13.3% | 39.7% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Georgia Tech | L | 45.5% | 40.5% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Syracuse | W | 50.0% | 36.8% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Cincinnati | L | 30.8% | 40.5% | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vs Rutgers | W | 33.3% | 43.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Maine | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Virginia Tech | L | 15.4% | 41.5% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @SMU | L | 43.8% | 29.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsPittsburgh | W | 61.5% | 33.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Georgia Tech | W | 44.4% | 39.6% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Duke | L | 15.4% | 34.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Fordham, Maine have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Bo MacCormack III nor without Bo MacCormack III: Bo MacCormack III had no game for the team that season, and sit out.