Boston College’s third-down conversion rate with Bo MacCormack III and without Bo MacCormack III
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Boston College was 1.4 percentage points under with Bo MacCormack III and 10.3 percentage points under without Bo MacCormack III in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 35.2% and 33.3%, a difference of 1.9%. Expected was 7.1 percentage points lower with Bo MacCormack III than without Bo MacCormack III. All 4 away games were with Bo MacCormack III. All 5 conference games were with Bo MacCormack III. All 4 second-half games were with Bo MacCormack III.
Bo MacCormack III, running back: 268 rushing yards, 58 carries and 7 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games without Bo MacCormack III is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +1.9% difference in third-down conversion rate with Bo MacCormack III vs without Bo MacCormack III is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Cincinnati | L | 30.8% | 40.5% | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vs Rutgers | W | 33.3% | 43.7% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Maine | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Virginia Tech | L | 15.4% | 41.5% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ SMU | L | 43.8% | 29.8% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Pittsburgh | W | 61.5% | 33.5% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Georgia Tech | W | 44.4% | 39.5% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Duke | L | 15.4% | 34.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Maine has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.