Boston College’s carries with Nolan Ray and without Nolan Ray
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Boston College was 1.0 carries under with Nolan Ray and 4.0 carries over without Nolan Ray over its last 25 games, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 35.7 and 37.5, a difference of 1.8. Expected was 3.1 carries higher with Nolan Ray than without Nolan Ray.
Nolan Ray, running back: 42 rushing yards, 7 carries and 1 reception in 4 of those 25 games, 5% of Boston College’s carries in those games.
2 games without Nolan Ray is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −5.0 difference in carries over expected with Nolan Ray vs without Nolan Ray is about what you’d expect.
A −1.8 difference in carries with Nolan Ray vs without Nolan Ray is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Syracuse | W | 48 | 31.1 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ SMU | L | 43 | 38.1 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs North Carolina | W | 51 | 39.2 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Pittsburgh | W | 35 | 39.4 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Nebraska (neutral) | L | 26 | 34.5 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Fordham | W | 38 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Michigan State | L | 25 | 31.1 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Stanford | L | 23 | 31.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs California | L | 21 | 34.8 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @Pittsburgh | L | 23 | 31.4 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Clemson | L | 32 | 28.3 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs UConn | L | 49 | 34.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Louisville | L | 36 | 29.0 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Notre Dame | L | 33 | 30.6 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsSMU | L | 40 | 33.4 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Georgia Tech | L | 26 | 33.2 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Syracuse | W | 28 | 31.5 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Cincinnati | L | 38 | 35.0 | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vs Rutgers | W | 29 | 39.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Maine | W | 36 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Virginia Tech | L | 37 | 32.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @SMU | L | 33 | 34.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsPittsburgh | W | 37 | 33.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Georgia Tech | W | 46 | 39.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Duke | L | 33 | 36.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Maine has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Nolan Ray nor without Nolan Ray: Nolan Ray had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.