Boston College’s carries with Nolan Ray and without Nolan Ray
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Boston College was 1.0 carries under with Nolan Ray and 4.0 carries over without Nolan Ray in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 35.7 and 37.5, a difference of 1.8. Expected was 3.1 carries higher with Nolan Ray than without Nolan Ray. All 4 second-half games were with Nolan Ray.
Nolan Ray, running back: 42 rushing yards, 7 carries and 1 reception in 4 games this season, 5% of Boston College’s carries in those games.
2 games without Nolan Ray is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −5.0 difference in carries over expected with Nolan Ray vs without Nolan Ray is about what you’d expect.
A −1.8 difference in carries with Nolan Ray vs without Nolan Ray is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Cincinnati | L | 38 | 35.0 | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vs Rutgers | W | 29 | 39.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Maine | W | 36 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Virginia Tech | L | 37 | 32.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ SMU | L | 33 | 34.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Pittsburgh | W | 37 | 33.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Georgia Tech | W | 46 | 39.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Duke | L | 33 | 36.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Maine has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.