Boston College’s carries with Mekhi Dodd and without Mekhi Dodd
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Boston College was 1.0 carries under with Mekhi Dodd and 0.4 carries under without Mekhi Dodd over its last 25 games, 6 games against 12. The plain averages are 34.1 and 32.6, a difference of 1.5. Expected was 2.3 carries higher with Mekhi Dodd than without Mekhi Dodd. All 5 night games were without Mekhi Dodd.
Mekhi Dodd, running back: 94 rushing yards, 22 carries and 3 receptions in 6 of those 25 games, 11% of Boston College’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
A −0.6 difference in carries over expected with Mekhi Dodd vs without Mekhi Dodd is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Mekhi Dodd and it comes up 15 times in 100.
A +1.5 difference in carries with Mekhi Dodd vs without Mekhi Dodd is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Syracuse | W | 48 | 31.1 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ SMU | L | 43 | 38.1 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs North Carolina | W | 51 | 39.2 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Pittsburgh | W | 35 | 39.4 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Nebraska (neutral) | L | 26 | 34.5 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Fordham | W | 38 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Michigan State | L | 25 | 31.1 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Stanford | L | 23 | 31.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs California | L | 21 | 34.8 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @Pittsburgh | L | 23 | 31.4 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Clemson | L | 32 | 28.3 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs UConn | L | 49 | 34.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Louisville | L | 36 | 29.0 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Notre Dame | L | 33 | 30.6 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsSMU | L | 40 | 33.4 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Georgia Tech | L | 26 | 33.2 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Syracuse | W | 28 | 31.5 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Cincinnati | L | 38 | 34.8 | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vs Rutgers | W | 29 | 39.2 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Maine | W | 36 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Virginia Tech | L | 37 | 32.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @SMU | L | 33 | 34.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsPittsburgh | W | 37 | 33.5 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Georgia Tech | W | 46 | 39.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Duke | L | 33 | 36.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.3 in 2025, plus 0.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 74% in 2025, 61% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Fordham, Maine have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Mekhi Dodd nor without Mekhi Dodd: Mekhi Dodd had no game for the team that season, and sit out.