Boston College’s carries with Bo MacCormack III and without Bo MacCormack III
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Boston College was 2.1 carries over with Bo MacCormack III and 10.0 carries under without Bo MacCormack III in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 37.3 and 32.5, a difference of 4.8. All 4 away games were with Bo MacCormack III. All 5 conference games were with Bo MacCormack III. All 4 second-half games were with Bo MacCormack III.
Bo MacCormack III, running back: 268 rushing yards, 58 carries and 7 receptions in 6 games this season, 26% of Boston College’s carries in those games.
2 games without Bo MacCormack III is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +4.8 difference in carries with Bo MacCormack III vs without Bo MacCormack III is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Cincinnati | L | 38 | 35.0 | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vs Rutgers | W | 29 | 39.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Maine | W | 36 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Virginia Tech | L | 37 | 32.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ SMU | L | 33 | 34.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Pittsburgh | W | 37 | 33.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Georgia Tech | W | 46 | 39.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Duke | L | 33 | 36.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Maine has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.