Boston College’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Boston College was 2.7 points under at home and 0.8 points under away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 22.8 and 20.5, a difference of 2.3. Expected was 4.4 points higher at home than away.
points a game over expected
at home
−2.7
away
−0.8
020
A −1.9 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
22.8
20.5
2040
A +2.3 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Cincinnati | L | 15 | 24.7 | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vs Rutgers | W | 28 | 32.3 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Maine | W | 22 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Virginia Tech | L | 14 | 27.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ SMU | L | 16 | 20.8 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Pittsburgh | W | 27 | 17.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Georgia Tech | W | 49 | 21.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Duke | L | 2 | 18.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.8 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Maine has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.