Boise State’s third-down conversion rate with Sire Gaines and without Sire Gaines
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Boise State was 1.9 percentage points over with Sire Gaines and 12.8 percentage points over without Sire Gaines over its last 25 games, 17 games against 6. The plain averages are 46.3% and 55.9%, a difference of 9.6%. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Sire Gaines. All 3 games after a bye were with Sire Gaines.
Sire Gaines, running back: 1,229 rushing yards, 236 carries and 21 receptions in 19 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −11.0% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Sire Gaines vs without Sire Gaines is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Sire Gaines and it comes up 19 times in 100.
A −9.6% difference in third-down conversion rate with Sire Gaines vs without Sire Gaines is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Oregon State | W | 53.3% | 46.1% | |
| Dec 6, 2024 | vs UNLV | W | 42.9% | 39.3% | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs Penn State (neutral) | L | 50.0% | 40.2% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | @ South Florida | L | 35.3% | 44.3% | |
| Sep 5, 2025 | vsEEastern Washington | W | 53.8% | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Air Force | W | 70.0% | 47.3% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Appalachian State | W | 50.0% | 48.8% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Notre Dame | L | 40.0% | 36.9% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs New Mexico | W | 38.9% | 43.6% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsUNLV | W | 54.5% | 38.2% | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | @ Nevada | W | 41.2% | 44.4% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Fresno State | L | 26.7% | 44.8% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ San Diego State | L | 35.7% | 40.0% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Colorado State | W | 53.8% | 47.9% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ Utah State | W | 54.2% | 41.1% | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | vsUNLV | W | 62.5% | 37.5% | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs Washington (neutral) | L | 31.3% | 42.3% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Oregon | L | 26.7% | 40.1% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Memphis | W | 46.2% | 42.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSSouth Dakota | W | 61.5% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Western Michigan | W | 71.4% | 41.9% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsUtah State | W | 61.5% | 45.7% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Fresno State | W | 38.5% | 47.7% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Washington State | W | 58.3% | 44.6% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Texas State | W | 56.3% | 45.4% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Eastern Washington, South Dakota have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 21 of these 25 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.