Boise State’s third-down conversion rate with Rasean Jones and without Rasean Jones
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Boise State was 10.0 percentage points over with Rasean Jones and 9.2 percentage points under without Rasean Jones in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 54.6% and 38.5%, a difference of 16.1%. All 4 home games were with Rasean Jones. All 5 day games were with Rasean Jones. All 4 games while unranked were with Rasean Jones.
Rasean Jones, receiver: 545 receiving yards, 37 receptions and 4 receiving touchdowns in 7 games this season.
One game without Rasean Jones is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Rasean Jones
+10.0%
without Rasean Jones
−9.2%
0%20%
plain
54.6%
38.5%
40%60%
The games
with Rasean Joneswithout Rasean Jones
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Oregon | L | 26.7% | 40.1% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Memphis | W | 46.2% | 42.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSSouth Dakota | W | 61.5% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Western Michigan | W | 71.4% | 41.9% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Utah State | W | 61.5% | 45.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Fresno State | W | 38.5% | 47.7% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Washington State | W | 58.3% | 44.6% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Texas State | W | 56.3% | 45.3% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- South Dakota has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.