Boise State’s third-down conversion rate with Max Cutforth and without Max Cutforth
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Boise State was 2.9 percentage points under with Max Cutforth and 6.8 percentage points over without Max Cutforth over its last 25 games, 5 games against 18. The plain averages are 40.3% and 50.6%, a difference of 10.3%. All 4 ranked opponents were without Max Cutforth. Both top-10 opponents were without Max Cutforth. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Max Cutforth.
Max Cutforth, quarterback: 1,190 passing yards, 180 pass attempts and 103 completions in 10 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −9.7% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Max Cutforth vs without Max Cutforth is about what you’d expect.
A −10.3% difference in third-down conversion rate with Max Cutforth vs without Max Cutforth is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Oregon State | W | 53.3% | 46.1% | |
| Dec 6, 2024 | vs UNLV | W | 42.9% | 39.3% | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs Penn State (neutral) | L | 50.0% | 40.2% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | @ South Florida | L | 35.3% | 44.3% | |
| Sep 5, 2025 | vsEEastern Washington | W | 53.8% | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Air Force | W | 70.0% | 47.3% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Appalachian State | W | 50.0% | 48.8% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Notre Dame | L | 40.0% | 36.9% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs New Mexico | W | 38.9% | 43.6% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsUNLV | W | 54.5% | 38.2% | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | @ Nevada | W | 41.2% | 44.4% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Fresno State | L | 26.7% | 44.8% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ San Diego State | L | 35.7% | 40.0% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Colorado State | W | 53.8% | 47.9% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ Utah State | W | 54.2% | 41.1% | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | vsUNLV | W | 62.5% | 37.5% | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs Washington (neutral) | L | 31.3% | 42.3% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Oregon | L | 26.7% | 40.1% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Memphis | W | 46.2% | 42.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSSouth Dakota | W | 61.5% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Western Michigan | W | 71.4% | 41.9% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsUtah State | W | 61.5% | 45.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Fresno State | W | 38.5% | 47.7% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Washington State | W | 58.3% | 44.6% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Texas State | W | 56.3% | 45.3% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Eastern Washington, South Dakota have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 21 of these 25 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.