Boise State’s points with Rasean Jones and without Rasean Jones
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Boise State was 2.4 points over with Rasean Jones and 8.2 points over without Rasean Jones in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 35.6 and 38.0, a difference of 2.4. Expected was 3.0 points higher with Rasean Jones than without Rasean Jones. All 4 home games were with Rasean Jones. All 5 day games were with Rasean Jones. All 4 games while unranked were with Rasean Jones.
Rasean Jones, receiver: 545 receiving yards, 37 receptions and 4 receiving touchdowns in 7 games this season.
One game without Rasean Jones is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
with Rasean Jones
+2.4
without Rasean Jones
+8.2
-505
plain
35.6
38.0
30354045
The games
with Rasean Joneswithout Rasean Jones
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Oregon | L | 27 | 25.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Memphis | W | 38 | 36.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSSouth Dakota | W | 38 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Western Michigan | W | 32 | 31.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Utah State | W | 37 | 27.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Fresno State | W | 38 | 29.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Washington State | W | 31 | 36.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Texas State | W | 46 | 38.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.8 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- South Dakota has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.