Boise State’s points of margin with Max Cutforth and without Max Cutforth
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Boise State was 10.8 points under with Max Cutforth and 4.1 points over without Max Cutforth over its last 25 games, 5 games against 18. The plain averages are -6.4 and 11.2, a difference of 17.6. All 4 ranked opponents were without Max Cutforth. Both top-10 opponents were without Max Cutforth. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Max Cutforth.
Max Cutforth, quarterback: 1,190 passing yards, 180 pass attempts and 103 completions in 10 of those 25 games.
points of margin a game over expected
A −14.9 difference in points of margin over expected with Max Cutforth vs without Max Cutforth is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Max Cutforth and it comes up 9 times in 100.
A −17.6 difference in points of margin with Max Cutforth vs without Max Cutforth is unusual: shuffle which games were with Max Cutforth and it comes up 2 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Oregon State | W | 16 | 22.6 | |
| Dec 6, 2024 | vs UNLV | W | 14 | 3.5 | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs Penn State (neutral) | L | -17 | -10.8 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | @ South Florida | L | -27 | -7.9 | |
| Sep 5, 2025 | vsEEastern Washington | W | 37 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Air Force | W | 12 | 7.1 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Appalachian State | W | 33 | 19.1 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Notre Dame | L | -21 | -26.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs New Mexico | W | 16 | 4.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsUNLV | W | 25 | 3.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | @ Nevada | W | 21 | 12.0 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Fresno State | L | -23 | 14.4 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ San Diego State | L | -10 | -1.2 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Colorado State | W | 28 | 16.4 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ Utah State | W | 1 | 2.9 | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | vsUNLV | W | 17 | 5.0 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs Washington (neutral) | L | -28 | -10.8 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Oregon | L | -7 | -2.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Memphis | W | 18 | 6.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSSouth Dakota | W | 14 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Western Michigan | W | 25 | 8.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsUtah State | W | 19 | 14.9 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Fresno State | W | 7 | 7.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Washington State | W | 21 | 14.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Texas State | W | 1 | 16.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.0 in 2024, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% in 2024, 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Eastern Washington, South Dakota have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 21 of these 25 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.