Boise State’s points of margin with Juelz Goff and without Juelz Goff
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Boise State was 4.5 points over with Juelz Goff and 2.2 points under without Juelz Goff over its last 25 games, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 16.8 and 4.7, a difference of 12.1.
Juelz Goff, running back: 64 rushing yards and 20 carries in 5 of those 25 games.
3 games without Juelz Goff is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Juelz Goff
+4.5
without Juelz Goff
−2.2
-10010
A +6.7 difference in points of margin over expected with Juelz Goff vs without Juelz Goff is about what you’d expect.
plain
16.8
4.7
01020
A +12.1 difference in points of margin with Juelz Goff vs without Juelz Goff is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Juelz Goffwithout Juelz Goff
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Oregon State | W | 16 | 22.6 | |
| Dec 6, 2024 | vs UNLV | W | 14 | 3.5 | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs Penn State (neutral) | L | -17 | -10.8 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | @ South Florida | L | -27 | -7.9 | |
| Sep 5, 2025 | vsEEastern Washington | W | 37 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Air Force | W | 12 | 7.1 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Appalachian State | W | 33 | 19.1 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Notre Dame | L | -21 | -26.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs New Mexico | W | 16 | 4.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsUNLV | W | 25 | 3.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | @ Nevada | W | 21 | 12.0 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Fresno State | L | -23 | 14.4 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ San Diego State | L | -10 | -1.2 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Colorado State | W | 28 | 16.4 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ Utah State | W | 1 | 2.9 | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | vsUNLV | W | 17 | 5.0 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs Washington (neutral) | L | -28 | -10.8 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Oregon | L | -7 | -2.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Memphis | W | 18 | 6.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSSouth Dakota | W | 14 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Western Michigan | W | 25 | 8.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsUtah State | W | 19 | 14.9 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Fresno State | W | 7 | 7.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Washington State | W | 21 | 14.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Texas State | W | 1 | 16.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- South Dakota has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Juelz Goff nor without Juelz Goff: Juelz Goff had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.