Boise State’s pass attempts with Rasean Jones and without Rasean Jones
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Boise State was 1.4 pass attempts under with Rasean Jones and 4.7 pass attempts over without Rasean Jones in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 28.7 and 34.0, a difference of 5.3. All 4 home games were with Rasean Jones. All 5 day games were with Rasean Jones. All 4 games while unranked were with Rasean Jones.
Rasean Jones, receiver: 545 receiving yards, 37 receptions and 4 receiving touchdowns in 7 games this season.
One game without Rasean Jones is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
pass attempts a game over expected
with Rasean Jones
−1.4
without Rasean Jones
+4.7
-10010
plain
28.7
34.0
3040
The games
with Rasean Joneswithout Rasean Jones
| Side | Date | Game | Result | pass attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Oregon | L | 29 | 27.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Memphis | W | 28 | 26.6 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSSouth Dakota | W | 31 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Western Michigan | W | 23 | 31.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Utah State | W | 21 | 32.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Fresno State | W | 34 | 29.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Washington State | W | 23 | 28.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Texas State | W | 46 | 32.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- South Dakota has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.