Boise State’s carries with Sire Gaines and without Sire Gaines
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Boise State was 1.1 carries over with Sire Gaines and 3.0 carries over without Sire Gaines in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 41.4 and 39.7, a difference of 1.7. Expected was 2.3 carries higher with Sire Gaines than without Sire Gaines.
Sire Gaines, running back: 418 rushing yards, 75 carries and 10 receptions in 5 games this season, 36% of Boise State’s carries in those games.
3 games without Sire Gaines is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −2.0 difference in carries over expected with Sire Gaines vs without Sire Gaines is about what you’d expect.
A +1.7 difference in carries with Sire Gaines vs without Sire Gaines is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Oregon | L | 35 | 40.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Memphis | W | 46 | 39.3 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSSouth Dakota | W | 47 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Western Michigan | W | 40 | 37.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Utah State | W | 41 | 35.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Fresno State | W | 44 | 37.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Washington State | W | 35 | 38.9 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Texas State | W | 38 | 36.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- South Dakota has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.