Boise State’s carries with Rasean Jones and without Rasean Jones
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Boise State was 1.1 carries over with Rasean Jones and 6.8 carries over without Rasean Jones over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 40.3 and 44.0, a difference of 3.7. All 4 home games were with Rasean Jones. All 5 day games were with Rasean Jones. All 4 games while unranked were with Rasean Jones.
Rasean Jones, receiver: 545 receiving yards, 37 receptions and 4 receiving touchdowns in 7 of those 25 games, 2% of Boise State’s carries in those games.
One game without Rasean Jones is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Rasean Jones
+1.1
without Rasean Jones
+6.8
-505
plain
40.3
44.0
354045
The games
with Rasean Joneswithout Rasean Jones
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Oregon State | W | 47 | 35.6 | |
| Dec 6, 2024 | vs UNLV | W | 35 | 37.0 | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs Penn State (neutral) | L | 40 | 36.1 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | @ South Florida | L | 38 | 39.7 | |
| Sep 5, 2025 | vsEEastern Washington | W | 37 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Air Force | W | 29 | 34.4 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Appalachian State | W | 43 | 38.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Notre Dame | L | 34 | 37.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs New Mexico | W | 52 | 35.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsUNLV | W | 31 | 38.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | @ Nevada | W | 45 | 37.4 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Fresno State | L | 29 | 39.2 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ San Diego State | L | 41 | 39.7 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Colorado State | W | 51 | 40.6 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ Utah State | W | 46 | 38.4 | |
| Dec 5, 2025 | vsUNLV | W | 37 | 37.7 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vs Washington (neutral) | L | 28 | 35.8 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Oregon | L | 35 | 40.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Memphis | W | 46 | 39.3 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSSouth Dakota | W | 47 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Western Michigan | W | 40 | 37.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsUtah State | W | 41 | 35.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Fresno State | W | 44 | 37.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Washington State | W | 35 | 38.9 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Texas State | W | 38 | 36.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- South Dakota has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Rasean Jones nor without Rasean Jones: Rasean Jones had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.