Boise State’s carries with Juelz Goff and without Juelz Goff
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Boise State was 2.4 carries over with Juelz Goff and 0.7 carries over without Juelz Goff in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 40.0 and 42.0, a difference of 2.0.
Juelz Goff, running back: 64 rushing yards and 20 carries in 5 games this season, 10% of Boise State’s carries in those games.
3 games without Juelz Goff is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Juelz Goff
+2.4
without Juelz Goff
+0.7
-505
A +1.6 difference in carries over expected with Juelz Goff vs without Juelz Goff is about what you’d expect.
plain
40.0
42.0
354045
A −2.0 difference in carries with Juelz Goff vs without Juelz Goff is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Juelz Goffwithout Juelz Goff
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Oregon | L | 35 | 40.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Memphis | W | 46 | 39.3 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsSSouth Dakota | W | 47 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Western Michigan | W | 40 | 37.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Utah State | W | 41 | 35.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Fresno State | W | 44 | 37.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Washington State | W | 35 | 38.9 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Texas State | W | 38 | 36.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- South Dakota has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.