Auburn’s third-down conversion rate with Bryson Washington and without Bryson Washington
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Auburn was 2.9 percentage points over with Bryson Washington and 3.5 percentage points over without Bryson Washington over its last 25 games, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 44.3% and 43.8%, a difference of 0.6%. Expected was 1.2 percentage points higher with Bryson Washington than without Bryson Washington. All 4 home games were with Bryson Washington. Both night games were with Bryson Washington. All 4 unranked opponents were with Bryson Washington.
Bryson Washington, running back: 76 rushing yards, 21 carries and 3 receptions in 5 of those 25 games.
2 games without Bryson Washington is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −0.7% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Bryson Washington vs without Bryson Washington is about what you’d expect.
A +0.6% difference in third-down conversion rate with Bryson Washington vs without Bryson Washington is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Kentucky | W | 57.1% | 39.1% | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Vanderbilt | L | 15.4% | 48.5% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 70.6% | 41.9% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Texas A&M | W | 35.7% | 37.1% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Alabama | L | 33.3% | 36.2% | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | @ Baylor | W | 50.0% | 38.9% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Ball State | W | 54.5% | 43.6% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs South Alabama | W | 53.8% | 40.0% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Oklahoma | L | 20.0% | 33.6% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Texas A&M | L | 0.0% | 31.8% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Georgia | L | 47.1% | 34.7% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Missouri | L | 37.5% | 35.5% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Arkansas | W | 25.0% | 44.3% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsKentucky | L | 37.5% | 40.7% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @Vanderbilt | L | 46.2% | 41.3% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Mercer | W | 63.6% | — | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsAlabama | L | 42.1% | 36.4% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsBaylor (neutral) | W | 55.6% | 37.7% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Southern Miss | W | 46.7% | 46.8% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Florida | L | 50.0% | 40.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsVanderbilt | W | 46.7% | 45.0% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Tennessee | L | 35.7% | 37.6% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Georgia | W | 37.5% | 39.2% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs LSU | L | 31.3% | 40.9% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Ole Miss | L | 50.0% | 41.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 8 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Bryson Washington nor without Bryson Washington: Bryson Washington had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.