Auburn’s points of margin with Xavier Atkins and since Xavier Atkins’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Auburn was 0.3 points over with Xavier Atkins and 1.4 points under since Xavier Atkins’ last game over its last 25 games, 16 games against 3. The plain averages are 5.9 and -16.0, a difference of 21.9. All 7 night games were with Xavier Atkins. All 10 unranked opponents were with Xavier Atkins. Both games while ranked were with Xavier Atkins.
Xavier Atkins, defender: 17 of those 25 games.
3 games since Xavier Atkins’ last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +1.7 difference in points of margin over expected with Xavier Atkins vs since Xavier Atkins’ last game is about what you’d expect.
A +21.9 difference in points of margin with Xavier Atkins vs since Xavier Atkins’ last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Xavier Atkins and it comes up 6 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Kentucky | W | 14 | -4.5 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Vanderbilt | L | -10 | 2.6 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 34 | 17.0 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Texas A&M | W | 2 | -5.0 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Alabama | L | -14 | -17.7 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | @ Baylor | W | 14 | 2.2 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Ball State | W | 39 | 30.3 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs South Alabama | W | 16 | 26.1 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Oklahoma | L | -7 | -9.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Texas A&M | L | -6 | -12.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Georgia | L | -10 | -6.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Missouri | L | -6 | 1.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Arkansas | W | 9 | -0.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsKentucky | L | -7 | 11.6 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @Vanderbilt | L | -7 | -12.5 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Mercer | W | 45 | — | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsAlabama | L | -7 | -5.7 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsBaylor (neutral) | W | 1 | -4.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Southern Miss | W | 35 | 25.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Florida | L | -5 | -1.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsVanderbilt | W | 6 | 17.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Tennessee | L | -10 | -10.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Georgia | W | 3 | -21.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs LSU | L | -21 | -12.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Ole Miss | L | -30 | -9.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Mercer has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 12 of these 20 games; in the other 8 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Xavier Atkins nor since Xavier Atkins’ last game: Xavier Atkins had no game for the team that season, and sit out.