Auburn’s points allowed with Xavier Atkins and since Xavier Atkins’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Auburn was 2.0 points under with Xavier Atkins and 3.8 points over since Xavier Atkins’ last game in 2026, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 21.4 and 35.7, a difference of 14.3. Both night games were with Xavier Atkins. All 4 unranked opponents were with Xavier Atkins. Both nonconference games were with Xavier Atkins.
Xavier Atkins, defender: 5 games this season.
3 games since Xavier Atkins’ last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
A −5.8 difference in points allowed over expected with Xavier Atkins vs since Xavier Atkins’ last game is about what you’d expect.
A −14.3 difference in points allowed with Xavier Atkins vs since Xavier Atkins’ last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Xavier Atkins and it comes up 19 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Baylor (neutral) | W | 16 | 27.5 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Southern Miss | W | 8 | 17.2 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Florida | L | 44 | 25.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 15 | 19.6 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Tennessee | L | 24 | 27.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Georgia | W | 24 | 34.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs LSU | L | 38 | 30.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Ole Miss | L | 45 | 31.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.8 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 8 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.