Auburn’s penalty yards vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Auburn was 16.8 yards over vs a ranked opponent and 9.9 yards under vs an unranked opponent over its last 25 games, 12 games against 12. The plain averages are 72.8 and 47.5, a difference of 25.4. All 7 nonconference games were vs an unranked opponent.
Auburn’s +26.7 vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent over expected ranks 1st of the 77 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
penalty yards a game over expected
A +26.7 difference in penalty yards over expected vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is rare: shuffle which games were vs a ranked opponent and it comes up once in 100.
A +25.4 difference in penalty yards vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is rare: shuffle which games were vs a ranked opponent and it comes up once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | penalty yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Kentucky | W | 49 | 48.2 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Vanderbilt | L | 47 | 53.9 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 0 | 54.4 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Texas A&M | W | 62 | 47.9 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Alabama | L | 46 | 49.2 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | @ Baylor | W | 83 | 65.6 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Ball State | W | 65 | 61.5 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs South Alabama | W | 43 | 61.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Oklahoma | L | 85 | 49.5 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Texas A&M | L | 69 | 55.6 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Georgia | L | 103 | 51.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Missouri | L | 40 | 59.9 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Arkansas | W | 35 | 60.0 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsKentucky | L | 26 | 61.4 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @Vanderbilt | L | 91 | 62.7 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Mercer | W | 40 | — | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsAlabama | L | 84 | 56.3 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsBaylor (neutral) | W | 47 | 56.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Southern Miss | W | 73 | 61.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Florida | L | 65 | 54.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsVanderbilt | W | 44 | 57.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Tennessee | L | 94 | 63.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Georgia | W | 85 | 57.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs LSU | L | 48 | 55.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Ole Miss | L | 67 | 63.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.8 in 2024, minus 2.1 in 2025, minus 1.3 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 44% in 2024, 45% in 2025, 27% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Mercer has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.