Auburn’s carries with Bryson Washington and without Bryson Washington
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Auburn was 0.3 carries under with Bryson Washington and 2.3 carries over without Bryson Washington over its last 25 games, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 35.8 and 36.0, a difference of 0.2. Expected was 2.5 carries higher with Bryson Washington than without Bryson Washington. All 4 home games were with Bryson Washington. Both night games were with Bryson Washington. All 4 unranked opponents were with Bryson Washington.
Bryson Washington, running back: 76 rushing yards, 21 carries and 3 receptions in 5 of those 25 games, 11% of Auburn’s carries in those games.
2 games without Bryson Washington is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −2.7 difference in carries over expected with Bryson Washington vs without Bryson Washington is about what you’d expect.
A −0.2 difference in carries with Bryson Washington vs without Bryson Washington is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Kentucky | W | 47 | 33.0 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Vanderbilt | L | 29 | 32.9 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 37 | 41.6 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Texas A&M | W | 41 | 32.5 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Alabama | L | 23 | 38.4 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | @ Baylor | W | 51 | 41.0 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Ball State | W | 32 | 41.8 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs South Alabama | W | 37 | 39.7 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Oklahoma | L | 35 | 36.1 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Texas A&M | L | 24 | 36.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Georgia | L | 35 | 31.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Missouri | L | 40 | 34.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Arkansas | W | 48 | 38.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsKentucky | L | 40 | 39.5 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @Vanderbilt | L | 36 | 32.6 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Mercer | W | 31 | — | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsAlabama | L | 36 | 35.6 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsBaylor (neutral) | W | 40 | 34.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Southern Miss | W | 51 | 43.7 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Florida | L | 30 | 34.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsVanderbilt | W | 28 | 38.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Tennessee | L | 32 | 33.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Georgia | W | 45 | 29.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs LSU | L | 34 | 31.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Ole Miss | L | 27 | 37.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 8 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Bryson Washington nor without Bryson Washington: Bryson Washington had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.