Army’s third-down conversion rate with Carson Smith and without Carson Smith
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Army was 3.4 percentage points over with Carson Smith and 3.3 percentage points under without Carson Smith over its last 25 games, 17 games against 6. The plain averages are 45.2% and 37.6%, a difference of 7.6%. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Carson Smith. Both bowl and playoff games were with Carson Smith.
Carson Smith, running back: 421 rushing yards, 100 carries and 1 reception in 17 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Carson Smith
+3.4%
without Carson Smith
−3.3%
-20%0%20%
A +6.7% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Carson Smith vs without Carson Smith is about what you’d expect.
plain
45.2%
37.6%
20%40%60%
A +7.6% difference in third-down conversion rate with Carson Smith vs without Carson Smith is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Carson Smithwithout Carson Smith
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs UTSA | W | 47.1% | 39.0% | |
| Dec 6, 2024 | vs Tulane | W | 44.4% | 39.4% | |
| Dec 14, 2024 | vs Navy (neutral) | L | 35.7% | 44.7% | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Louisiana Tech (neutral) | W | 41.7% | 43.2% | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vsTTarleton State | L | 37.5% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Kansas State | W | 45.5% | 35.7% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs North Texas | L | 50.0% | 43.1% | |
| Sep 25, 2025 | @ East Carolina | L | 13.3% | 38.2% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ UAB | W | 38.5% | 43.7% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Charlotte | W | 57.1% | 40.6% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @Tulane | L | 40.0% | 39.2% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Air Force | W | 38.5% | 46.6% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Temple | W | 50.0% | 39.2% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Tulsa | L | 46.2% | 41.7% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @UTSA | W | 21.4% | 38.1% | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | vsNavy (neutral) | L | 30.0% | 40.8% | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs UConn (neutral) | W | 66.7% | 37.9% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsBBryant | W | 66.7% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs South Florida | L | 36.4% | 40.6% | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | @Temple | W | 50.0% | 47.3% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Louisiana Tech | L | 50.0% | 37.9% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsTulane | W | 53.3% | 45.3% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 58.3% | 41.9% | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @Tulsa | W | 35.7% | 42.2% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Memphis | L | 30.0% | 34.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Tarleton State, Bryant have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 25 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.